The next industrial revolution is here
This post originally appeared in the Puget Sound Business Journal’s “Wright on Center” column on February 1, 2019.
A laundry-folding machine was one of the stars at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. It’s larger than your standard home washer and it does a decent job folding a shirt.
It’s another sign that automation, as it continues to weave its way into our lives, is both a cause for excitement, and for concern. Service workers are likely to join in that concern.
That’s why as leaders in our region we should focus on preparing our communities for the jobs of the future. To sustain our broad, working middle class that is the engine block of our economy, no less the bedrock of our nation, a new vision between industry and schools and universities is necessary to spur development of training and vocational programs focused on new technology and the careers to support it.
Historically, disruptive technologies have not resulted in long-term mass unemployment, as new types of work sprang up around them. A McKinsey report published in 2017 estimated that automation will result in a productivity increase among American workers between .8 percent and 1.4 percent. (The steam engine’s effect on productivity between 1850 and 1910 was a .3 percent increase.)
Fewer than 5 percent of occupations are susceptible to full automation, but partial automation will affect everyone’s job. In other words, the effects of automation are most likely to be seen in individual activities within occupations and across select industries.
We can embrace the future of automation while supporting our middle class by getting smart about our retraining programs. However, policymakers have had little success in bringing standalone retraining programs to scale.
Perhaps the biggest impediment to bringing successful retraining programs to scale has been a lack of flexibility. Programs that are seeing success are those that are developing alongside and in concert with businesses that have expressed a need and a commitment to hire.
Locally, there are unique partnerships between the aviation industry and school systems. Rainier Beach High School offers courses in aerospace science through Seattle Public Schools’ Skills Centers. Raisbeck Aviation High School operated by Highline Public Schools is another example. We should explore all industries where collaboration can offer similar benefits.
Automation is undoubtedly going to continue to bring efficiency and consistency to many of our operations. This will be better for consumers, but we’ll have to prepare for the jobs to accompany it. For many, that will mean learning new skills to complement their careers. For some, it will mean new careers altogether. Still, for others just entering the workforce, it will mean educational programs from high school and college tailored toward careers of the future. With so many innovative companies in our backyard, now is the time to double down on these efforts.
Local leadership is key to a successful retraining program. Collaboration between local industry, policymakers and educational institutions will lead to a curriculum that is in demand for jobs that are immediately available and will better serve the local economy.
We ought not fear a future free of laundry folding. However, if we want to keep a strong and thriving middle class, we have to prepare for it.